Security sources in Kenya have told Saharareporters that Kenya’s opposition leader, Raila Odinga is determined to take Kenya down with him if the Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission (IEBC), declares presidential election results that do not have him declared as the winner of last Tuesday’s Presidential election.
In a press conference today, Odinga’s party, NASA, demanded that their candidate for president, Raila Odinga be declared the president-elect. NASA presented their own figures that showed that Odinga won the Tuesday’s presidential election.
The IEBC quickly held a press briefing to dismiss Odinga’s claim. The commission said that verifying and confirming of election returns were ongoing and that they have received over 40,000 form 34As. The commission’s Chairman Wafula Chebuati said that so far they had not seen a discrepancy in the preliminary figures being published from the figures in the 34As.
The commission added that they would declare the winner as soon as they received and verified all the 34A forms as well as the 291 34B forms from the constituencies. They expect that process to be completed by noon today.
A security source who spoke to Saharareporters said that Raila Odinga had made up his mind to fight to the last. “He is already in the bunker,” our source said. “We can still get him out of it but we have no carrot to offer him to drag him out.”
For Odinga who is 72 years, this election is his last chance to be President. He would be 77 when the next election comes around in 2022.
According to another source close to American and British diplomatic posts in Nairobi, there is panic over what Odinga would do next. “Odinga is a man who has nothing to lose anymore,” he said. “He is staking it all out this time around.”
The Americans are at a loss as to how to appease him, our source said. “Nobody knows what he wants. I don’t think he needs money.”
The fear is that once the presidential result is announced and Odinga rejects it, Kenya will be up in flames.
According to the preliminary election results so far published by IEBC, with 97% reporting, President Uhuru Kenyatta has an insurmountable lead of over 1.4 million votes.
Meanwhile, various election monitoring groups, including the African Union group led by a former South African president, Thabo Mbeki, have issued statements calling the election peaceful and credible. They have also appealed to Kenyans who have disputes to follow due process.
That appeal differs from the signal coming from Odinga’s team. He has stood by the statement that he made on Wednesday that led to the first wave of violence that killed 4 people. He called the election a fraud and stated that he could not control what the people would do.
If no one can figure out how to control what people will do as soon as the result is announced, Kenya may see the violence that will surpass what happened after the 2007 elections when over 1,500 people were killed and another 600,000 people displaced.
Will Odinga brink? Will Kenya once again get close but pull back from the precipice? Tomorrow will tell.